Macro-evaluation on hydropower generation

The Mission

The project aimed to conduct a macro-level evaluation of climate change impacts on hydropower generation (financial risk), dam safety (industrial risk), and environmental conditions (environmental risk) across a cascade of assets in the Pyrenees. A key challenge was to assess and improve the reliability of existing methods used to evaluate changes in regular flows and extreme hydro-climatic events such as storm rainfall and floods.

The Solution

Tractebel developed a comprehensive methodology to score a wide range of risks across all assets and quantify the impacts of hydro-climatic changes, flood safety, and environmental effects. This included evaluating current assessment methods, testing the reliability of typical hydrological models under climate change scenarios, and developing innovative tools to address identified limitations. New approaches such as multi-hydrological modeling, dynamic weighting of calibrated models, and stochastic weather generators were introduced to enhance predictive accuracy.

The Impact

The project enabled the co-identification of threats and opportunities with operators, leading to a detailed risk scoring system. Specific vulnerabilities were quantified both in terms of hydro-climatic changes per catchment and economic impacts—such as the cost of modifying spillways or changes in energy production. Outdated methods were discarded, and new, more robust techniques were established, setting a new standard for climate resilience in hydropower asset management.